ABSTRACT
Ten years after the adoption of the Kigali Amendment for the gradual reduction of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the article analyses the results and future prospects of the refrigerant transition in the cooling sector, comparing the situation of the European market with that of international and emerging markets. Although Europe has benefited from an initial technological advantage thanks to early regulations, maintaining global leadership requires constant innovation and the ability to adapt to foreign regulatory environments that are still under development.
The analysis highlights that the mere substitution of traditional refrigerants with low-GWP alternatives is no longer sufficient on its own; climate success crucially depends on the energy efficiency of the systems and the decarbonisation of electricity production in the face of rapidly growing demand. Finally, the main bottlenecks of the transition are identified: the need to harmonise safety standards and the urgent need to train qualified technicians capable of managing the new refrigerants.
ARTICLE
Ten years after the adoption of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on 15 October 2016, the global cooling sector stands at a decisive moment. The agreement, designed to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), marked one of the most significant international climate commitments of the last decade. Unlike the Montreal Protocol itself, which successfully addressed ozone-depleting substances, Kigali focuses on reducing high-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants while maintaining the rapid expansion of cooling services worldwide.
A decade later, the transition has unquestionably begun, but it has also become increasingly clear that replacing one refrigerant with another is only one part of a much larger transformation. Refrigerants remain important because they directly affect greenhouse gas emissions through leaks and end-of-life losses. However, indirect emissions generated by the electricity consumed throughout the lifetime of cooling equipment are becoming the dominant environmental challenge. As demand for air conditioning, refrigeration, data centres and cold-chain infrastructure accelerates, the success of the Kigali Amendment will depend as much on energy efficiency and electricity decarbonisation as on the refrigerants themselves.
Europe entered this transition with a significant advantage thanks to the early implementation of the F-Gas Regulation. Yet maintaining this leadership in an increasingly competitive global market is far from guaranteed. Meanwhile, many emerging economies are only beginning to establish the regulatory frameworks, technical standards and professional skills required to support the transition. These contrasting realities illustrate that Kigali is progressing at different speeds across the world, reflecting differences in economic development, regulatory maturity and energy infrastructure.
Europe’s early leadership
European manufacturers were among the first to respond to increasingly stringent fluorinated gas legislation. Long before Kigali entered into force internationally, European companies had already invested heavily in developing alternative refrigerants, redesigning equipment, improving energy efficiency and adapting manufacturing processes to comply with progressively tighter environmental requirements.
This early regulatory pressure created an important technological advantage. European manufacturers accumulated experience in designing systems using low-GWP refrigerants, while simultaneously improving product performance and reliability. As a result, Europe today possesses one of the world’s most mature portfolios of commercially available low-GWP technologies.
However, technological leadership cannot be viewed as permanent. Continuous innovation remains essential because regulatory compliance alone does not guarantee long-term competitiveness. Manufacturers must continue investing in research, product development and production capabilities if Europe is to retain its position in global markets.
At the same time, Europe’s increasingly ambitious regulations introduce new competitive challenges. The export restrictions introduced under Regulation (EU) 2024/573 for several categories of equipment containing high-GWP refrigerants limit the ability of European manufacturers to supply products to countries whose regulatory frameworks are still evolving. Many emerging markets have not yet reached the stage where low-GWP alternatives can be rapidly adopted across all applications.
This creates an important strategic dilemma. While European industry has developed advanced technologies, reduced commercial presence in developing markets could weaken its long-term influence. If competitors from other regions establish stronger market positions during this transitional period, the technological gap that Europe currently enjoys may gradually narrow. Maintaining leadership therefore requires not only technological innovation but also continued engagement with international markets as they progressively implement Kigali commitments.
The global transition proceeds at different speeds
One of the defining characteristics of the Kigali Amendment is that implementation varies considerably between countries. Europe entered the transition with an established regulatory framework, experienced manufacturers and qualified technical personnel. In contrast, many countries across Asia, Africa and the Middle East have only recently begun introducing the legislation and institutional structures necessary to support the phase-down of HFCs.
This difference in timing should not necessarily be interpreted as failure. Countries face very different economic conditions, infrastructure limitations and policy priorities. Building an effective ecosystem for refrigerant transition requires far more than legislation alone. Professional qualifications, technical standards, certification schemes, enforcement mechanisms and market surveillance all need to develop simultaneously.
Many emerging economies therefore face a transition that extends well beyond refrigerants themselves. Establishing vocational training systems, updating building regulations, introducing safety standards and educating installers may require several years before low-GWP technologies can be deployed at scale.
Rather than attempting to replicate Europe’s timetable, many countries are adopting a gradual approach that reflects their own institutional capacity. This slower implementation may ultimately prove beneficial. Nations beginning the transition today can learn from the experiences, technical challenges and regulatory adjustments already encountered by early adopters, avoiding many of the mistakes made during Europe’s initial transition.
Refrigerants alone will not deliver climate success
Perhaps the most important lesson emerging after ten years of Kigali is that refrigerant replacement alone cannot achieve climate neutrality in the cooling sector.
Refrigerant policy must increasingly be integrated within a broader energy transition strategy. Energy-efficient equipment reduces electricity demand throughout the operating lifetime of cooling systems, lowering both operating costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Simultaneously, decarbonising electricity generation ensures that the remaining electricity consumption carries a progressively smaller environmental footprint.
The challenge extends across virtually every sector relying on cooling technologies. Buildings require increasingly efficient air conditioning systems to cope with rising temperatures. Data centres demand reliable cooling solutions as digitalisation expands worldwide. Food cold chains are becoming indispensable for reducing food losses and ensuring food security, particularly in developing countries. Healthcare systems similarly depend upon reliable refrigeration for medicines and vaccines.
Viewed collectively, these sectors demonstrate that the environmental impact of cooling can no longer be assessed solely through refrigerant choice. Instead, cooling must be considered as part of an integrated energy system where equipment efficiency, electricity generation and system design all contribute to overall sustainability.
Energy efficiency becomes the central priority
The growing importance of energy efficiency extends well beyond environmental considerations. For many countries, particularly those where electricity prices are subsidised, inefficient cooling systems impose substantial financial burdens on public budgets.
Every kilowatt-hour saved through improved refrigeration efficiency represents electricity that governments do not need to generate, import or subsidise. Reduced electricity demand also lowers pressure on transmission networks, delays investments in additional generation capacity and improves overall energy security.
This broader perspective fundamentally changes the interpretation of Kigali. Rather than viewing the agreement solely as an environmental treaty targeting refrigerants, it increasingly becomes part of a wider strategy encompassing industrial development, energy planning and economic resilience.
Nevertheless, energy efficiency alone cannot solve the problem. Demand for cooling is expected to increase so rapidly over the coming decades that efficiency improvements, although substantial, will not completely offset rising electricity consumption. Population growth, urbanisation and climate change are simultaneously increasing the number of cooling systems installed worldwide.
Consequently, the ultimate success of global cooling depends upon the parallel decarbonisation of electricity production. Without cleaner power generation, indirect emissions will continue to dominate the sector’s climate impact regardless of improvements in refrigerant technology.
Systems matter more than individual components
Another major lesson emerging during the Kigali transition is that system performance matters more than the performance of individual products.
There is currently no universal refrigerant capable of optimally serving every application. Natural refrigerants, HFOs, HFC blends and other alternatives each present advantages and limitations depending on operating conditions, safety requirements, efficiency targets and application characteristics.
Similarly, highly efficient equipment does not automatically produce highly efficient systems. A premium chiller installed within a poorly designed hydraulic network may operate far below its theoretical performance. Incorrect sizing, inadequate commissioning, poor maintenance or inappropriate control strategies can significantly reduce efficiency throughout the equipment lifetime.
This system-based perspective shifts attention from individual products towards the entire cooling value chain. Designers, consultants, installers, commissioning engineers, maintenance technicians and building operators all influence final energy performance.
Consequently, substantial opportunities remain for reducing energy consumption without requiring revolutionary technological breakthroughs. Better engineering practice, improved commissioning procedures and higher professional standards can often deliver significant efficiency gains using technologies already available today.
Safety standards and workforce development
The widespread adoption of low-GWP refrigerants introduces new technical challenges because many alternatives possess different safety characteristics from traditional HFCs. Several widely adopted refrigerants now fall within the A2L or A3 safety classifications, requiring new approaches to equipment design, installation and maintenance.
International standards such as EN 378 and IEC 60335 provide an essential technical framework for safely applying these refrigerants. However, standards alone cannot ensure safe implementation.
The limiting factor increasingly lies in workforce competence. Engineers and technicians must manage appropriate installation practices, leak prevention, commissioning procedures and maintenance requirements. Without adequate training, even well-designed systems may present unnecessary operational risks or fail to achieve expected performance.
This skills challenge is particularly acute in emerging economies where vocational education systems are still adapting to new technologies. Developing comprehensive professional training programmes requires considerable institutional investment. Certification schemes, legal responsibilities, educational curricula and practical training facilities must evolve together.
Professionalising the refrigeration and air conditioning workforce therefore represents one of the most important long-term investments supporting Kigali implementation. Well-trained technicians improve safety, maximise system efficiency, reduce refrigerant leakage and enhance equipment reliability throughout its operational life.
Harmonising regulations
Closely linked to workforce development is the need for greater harmonisation of safety regulations and building codes.
Although international technical standards increasingly converge, important differences remain between national regulations governing building design, refrigerant charge limits and installation requirements. These inconsistencies complicate product development for manufacturers operating internationally while slowing technology transfer across markets.
Greater harmonisation would reduce regulatory uncertainty, facilitate international trade and accelerate the global adoption of low-GWP technologies. Harmonised rules also simplify technician training by reducing differences between national requirements.
Building codes deserve particular attention because they determine where and how certain refrigerants may be safely used. Updating these regulations often requires close cooperation between governments, standards organisations, manufacturers and the construction sector.
Why Kigali differs from Montreal
Comparisons between the Kigali Amendment and the original Montreal Protocol are inevitable, yet the two transitions differ fundamentally.
The Montreal Protocol achieved remarkably rapid success because many substitute refrigerants possessed characteristics similar to the chemicals they replaced. Existing equipment designs required relatively limited modification, and technicians could continue working using familiar installation practices.
Kigali presents a far more complex technological transition. Low-GWP refrigerants frequently require redesigned equipment, modified safety procedures, updated standards and significantly expanded workforce training. Entire supply chains must adapt rather than simply substitute one refrigerant for another.
For this reason, Kigali should not be expected to replicate the implementation speed achieved under the Montreal Protocol. The transition remains fully achievable, but its complexity inevitably requires more time.
Looking ahead
Ten years after its adoption, the Kigali Amendment has successfully established a common global direction for refrigerant transition. Technological progress has been substantial, regulatory frameworks continue to expand and an increasing number of countries are actively implementing their commitments.
Yet the next decade will likely determine whether Kigali achieves its broader climate objectives. The refrigerant transition must increasingly be integrated with improvements in energy efficiency, workforce development, regulatory harmonisation and electricity decarbonisation.
Europe retains important technological strengths but cannot assume that early leadership will automatically continue. Continuous innovation and sustained international engagement remain essential if European manufacturers are to preserve their competitive position as emerging markets mature.
At the same time, developing economies face the challenge of building the institutional foundations necessary for long-term success. Regulations, standards, vocational education and market development must evolve together if low-GWP technologies are to deliver their full environmental benefits.
Ultimately, the central lesson after ten years is that the future of sustainable cooling extends far beyond refrigerants themselves. Refrigerant choice remains an essential component of climate policy, but it is no longer sufficient on its own. The decisive factors will increasingly be the efficiency of cooling systems, the competence of the professionals who design and maintain them, and the ability of countries to produce low-carbon electricity capable of supporting the billions of cooling systems that will be installed over the coming decades.
In this broader context, Kigali should be viewed not as the final destination but as the starting point of a much wider transformation. The environmental success of global cooling will ultimately depend on integrating refrigerant innovation with an equally ambitious transition of energy systems, technical skills and regulatory frameworks worldwide.
Francesco Scuderi